A risk prediction model of cervical cancer developed based on nested case-control design / 中华流行病学杂志

Objective: To construct a cervical cancer risk prediction model based on nested case-control study design and Yinzhou Health Information Platform in Ningbo, and provide reliable reference for self-risk assessment of cervical cancer in local women. Methods: In local women aged 25-75 years old who had no history of cervical cancer registered in Yinzhou before October 31, 2018, a follow up was conducted for at least three years, the patients who developed cervical cancer during the follow up period were selected as the case group and matched with a control group at a ratio of 1∶10. The prediction indicators before the onset was used in model construction. Variables were selected by Lasso-logistic regression, the variables with non-zero β were selected to fit the logistic regression model and Bootstrap was used for internal validation. The discrimination of the model was evaluated by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve(AUROC), and the calibration was evaluated by calibration curve and Hosmer-Lemeshow test. Results: The prediction indicators included in the final model were age, smoking status, history of cervicitis, history of adenomyosis, HPV testing, and thinprep cytologic test. The AUROC calculated in the internal validation was 0.740 (95%CI:0.739-0.740), and the calibration curve was almost identical with the ideal curve, P=0.991 in Hosmer-Lemeshow test, indicating that the model discrimination and calibration were good. Conclusions: In this study, a simple and practical cervical cancer risk prediction model was developed. The model can be used in general population with strong interpretability, good discrimination and calibration in internal validation, which can provide a reference for women to assess their risk of cervical cancer.

Epidemiological study of incidence of systematic lupus erythematosus in Yinzhou, Ningbo, 2016-2021 / 中华流行病学杂志

Objective: To characterize the incidence density of systematic lupus erythematosus (SLE) in Yinzhou District of Ningbo from 2016 to 2021, and compare the age and gender specific differences. Methods: A retrospective cohort study was conducted based on the related data from 2015 to 2021 collected from the Health Information Platform of Yinzhou. Suspected SLE cases in local residents were identified by fuzzy matching of International Classification of Diseases 10th edition code "M32" or Chinese text "lupus". The classification criteria from Systemic Lupus International Collaboration Clinics-2012 and The European League Against Rheumatism/American College of Rheumatology-2019 were used for case verification. SLE cases were identified with specific algorithm based on verification results, and new cases were identified with 1 year as the washout period. The incidence density and 95%CI were estimated by Poisson distribution. Results: From 2016 to 2021, a total of 1 551 921 permanent residents were registered in Yinzhou, in whom 51.52% were women. The M(Q1,Q3) age at enrollment was 40.38 (27.54, 53.54) years. The M(Q1,Q3) of follow-up person-years was 3.83 (0.41, 5.83) years. There were 451 new SLE cases, in which 352 were women (78.05%). The 6-year incidence density was 8.14/100 000 person-years (95%CI: 7.41/100 000 person-years-8.93/100 000 person-years) for the total population, 3.68/100 000 person-years (95%CI: 2.99/100 000 person-years-4.48/100 000 person-years) for men and 12.37/100 000 person-years (95%CI: 11.11/100 000 person-years- 13.73/100 000 person-years) for women. The incidence density in men appeared a small peak at 20-29 years old, and began to increase with age from 40 years old. The incidence density in women was highest in age group 20-29 years (16.57/100 000 person-years) and remained to be high until 30-79 years old. The incidence density of SLE in Yinzhou show no significant temporal trend from 2016 to 2021 (men: P=0.848; women: P=1.000). Conclusions: The incidence density of SLE in Yinzhou from 2016 to 2021 was similar to those of other areas in China. SLE has a high incidence in women, especially in the young and elderly, suggesting that more attention should be paid to the diagnosis and treatment of SLE in women.

Artificial intelligence-based literature data warehouse for vaccine safety / 中华流行病学杂志

Objective: To establish a sustainable updated literature data warehouse for global vaccine safety assessment, and provide data support for evidence-based vaccine safety assessment. Methods: Semi-automated construction and updating of a literature data warehouse were achieved through the continuous integration of standard operating steps of evidence-based reviews with artificial intelligence technologies. Following the standard procedure of a systematic literature review, the literatures about vaccine safety assessment published before November 29, 2020 were retrieved from 9 databases including OVID, Scopus, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, and ClinicalTrails.org in English and Wanfang, CNKI, VIP, and SinoMed in Chinese. Literatures were screened for two rounds in a semi-automatic manner (by artificial intelligence literature processing system and manual work) according to the inclusion/exclusion criteria. Furthermore, the literatures were classified according to the types of vaccines and adverse events. The updating strategy was established, and the literature data warehouse was updated regularly. Experts were organized to select specific vaccine safety topics and carry out special demonstration studies. Results: More than 0.41 million articles were retrieved. According to the inclusion/exclusion criteria, 23 304 articles were included after two rounds of screening. At present, we have selected and completed three prior topics as demonstration studies, including the systematic review of "DPT (diphtheria, pertussis and tetanus) vaccine and encephalopathy/encephalitis", and the classified management of literatures about allergic purpura and brachial plexus neuritis. Conclusions: The sustainable updated literature data warehouse of vaccine safety can provide high-quality research data for vaccine safety research, including evidence support for immunization related policy-making and adjustment and vaccine safety-related methodological research or clinical tool development; and further demonstration studies can provide references for building a new methodological framework system for timely and efficient completion of the evidence-based assessment of vaccine safety.

Epidemiological study on the incidence of inflammatory bowel disease in Yinzhou District, Ningbo City from 2011 to 2020 / 北京大学学报(医学版)

OBJECTIVE@#To describe the distribution characteristics of inflammatory bowel disease among permanent residents in Yinzhou District, Ningbo City, and to understand the disease burden and development trend of inflammatory bowel disease in this area.@*METHODS@#Using the retrospective cohort design, we collected the registration information of all permanent residents in the residents' health files of the Yinzhou Regional Health Information Platform from 2010 to 2020, and used electronic medical records to follow up their inflammatory bowel disease visits. A one-year wash-out period was set, and the patients who were diagnosed with the primary diagnosis for the first time after one year of registration were re-garded as new cases. The incidence density and 95% confidence interval (CI) of inflammatory bowel disease were estimated by Poisson distribution.@*RESULTS@#From 2011 to 2020, a total of 1 496 427 permanent residents in Yinzhou District were included, of which 729 996 were male (48.78%). The total follow-up person-years were 8 081 030.82, and the median follow-up person-years were 5.41 [interquartile range (IQR): 5.29]. During the study period, there were 1 217 new cases of inflammatory bowel disease, of which males (624 cases, 51.27%) were more than females (593 cases, 48.73%). The total incidence density was 15.06/100 000 person-years (95%CI: 14.23, 15.93). Among all new cases, there were 1 106 cases (90.88%) of ulcerative colitis, with an incidence density of 13.69 per 100 000 person-years (95%CI: 12.89, 14.52); 70 cases (5.75%) of Crohn's disease, with an incidence density of 0.87 per 100 000 person-years (95%CI: 0.68, 1.09); and 41 cases (3.37%) of indeterminate colitis, with an incidence density of 0.51 per 100 000 person-years (95%CI: 0.36, 0.69). The median age of onset of ulcerative colitis was 50.82 years old (IQR: 18.77), with the highest proportion (15.01%) in the 45-49 years group. The incidence density of ulcerative colitis gradually increased with age, reaching a relatively high level in the 45-49 years group (20.53/100 000 person-years; 95%CI: 17.63, 23.78), followed by a slight increase. And the incidence density in the 65-69 years group was the highest (25.44/100 000 person-years; 95%CI: 20.85, 30.75), with a rapid decrease in the 75-79 years group. The median age of onset of Crohn's disease was 44.34 years (IQR: 33.41), with the highest proportion (12.86%) in the 25-29 years group. Due to the small number of new cases of Crohn's disease, the age distribution fluctuated greatly, with peaks both in young and old people. From 2011 to 2020, the incidence density of inflammatory bowel disease in Yinzhou District was at a low level from 2011 to 2013, and showed a rapid upward trend from 2014 to 2016, reaching a peak of 24.62 per 100 000 person-years in 2016 (95%CI: 21.31, 28.30), and slightly decreased in 2017-2020.@*CONCLUSION@#The incidence density of inflammatory bowel disease in Yinzhou District from 2011 to 2020 was at a relatively high level, and medical institutions and health departments need to pay attention to the burden of disease caused by it.

Clinical research progress and implications of therapeutic vaccines for cervical cancer and precancerous lesions: a qualitative systematic review / 中华肿瘤杂志

Objective: To systematically summarize and analyze the clinical research progress of therapeutic vaccines for cervical cancer or precancerous lesions. Methods: English databases (PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, Cochrane library, Proquest, and ClinicalTrails.gov) and Chinese databases (SinoMed, CNKI, WanFang, and VIP Database) were systematically searched to collect literature on therapeutic vaccines for cervical cancer or precancerous lesions from inception to February 18, 2021. After screening, we evaluated the risk of bias of included studies, and combed the basic information of the literature, research designs, information of vaccines, study patients, outcome indicators and so on, qualitatively summarized the clinical research progress. Results: A total of 71 studies were included in this systematic review, including 14 random controlled trials, 15 quasi-random controlled trials, 4 cohort studies, 1 case-control study, 34 case series studies and 3 case reports. The study patients included women aged 15~79 with cervical cancer or precancerous lesions in 18 countries from 1989 to 2021. On the one hand, there were 40 studies on therapeutic vaccines for cervical precancerous lesions (22 867 participants), involving 21 kinds of vaccines in 6 categories. Results showed 3 marketed vaccines (Cervarix, Gardasil, Gardasil 9) as adjuvant immunotherapies were significant effective in preventing the recurrence of precancerous lesions compared with the conization only. In addition, MVA E2 vaccine had been in phase Ⅲ clinical trials as a specific therapeutic vaccine, with relative literature showing it could eliminate most high-grade precancerous lesions. Therapeutic vaccines for precancerous lesions all showed good safety. On the other hand, there were 31 studies on therapeutic vaccines for cervical cancer (781 participants), involving 19 kinds of vaccines in 7categories, with none had been marketed. 25 studies were with no control group, showing the vaccines could effectively eliminate solid tumors, prevent recurrence, and prolong the median survival time. However, the vaccines effectiveness couldn't be statistically calculated due to the lack of a control group. As for the safety of therapeutic vaccines for cervical cancer, 9 studies showed that patients experienced serious adverse events after treatments, where 7 studies reported that serious adverse events occurred in patients couldn't be ruled out as the results of therapeutic vaccines. Conclusions: The literature review shows that the literature evidence for the therapeutic vaccines for cervical precancerous lesions is relatively mature compared with the therapeutic vaccines for cervical cancer. The four kinds of vaccines on the market are all therapeutic vaccines for precancerous lesions, but they are generally used as vaginal infection treatments or adjuvant immunotherapies for cervical precancerous lesions, not used for the specific treatments of cervical precancerous lesions. Other specific therapeutic vaccines are in the early stage of clinical trials, mainly phase Ⅰ/Ⅱ clinical trials with small sample size. The effectiveness and safety data are limited, and further research is still needed.

Epidemiological and etiological characteristics of hand, foot and mouth disease among children aged 5 years and younger in Ningbo (2016 to 2019) / 北京大学学报(医学版)

OBJECTIVE@#To describe the epidemiological and etiological characteristics of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) among children aged 5 years and younger in Ningbo after the access of entero-virus-A71 vaccine (2016 to 2019).@*METHODS@#A retrospective cohort study were performed in children aged 5 years and younger in Ningbo from 2016 to 2019. Data for incidence of HFMD was collected from the National Notifiable Disease Surveillance Reporting System and the Electronic Medical Records (EMRs) System, while the demographic information was derived from the Immunization Information System. Speci-mens were detected by real-time fluorescence quantitative PCR and the Wilson method was used to estimate the incidence rate and 95% confidence interval.@*RESULTS@#From 2016 to 2019, a total of 1 044 800 residential children were observed in this population-based cohort. In the study, 102 471 cases of HFMD were diagnosed in 2 651 081 person-years, revealing an overall incidence density of 3 865.25/100 000 person-years. There was no significant decline in the number of the cases after the vaccine was available. The number of the patients of hand foot mouth disease during the four years was 93 421, of whom 84 875 (90.85%) had only one incident record, while 8 946 (9.15%) had 2 or more cases in this period; there were 69 771 (66.06%) patients who only needed to see a doctor once for each disease, 19.92% of the patients needed to be treated twice, and 14 801 (14.02%) patients needed to go to the hospital or clinic three times or more. The incidence of HFMD showed obvious seasonality and periodicity, which mainly concentrated in April to July each year, and the epidemic cycle was 2 years; most of the cases were 1 to 3-year old children, with more cases in male. The incidence density varied across the region, with the highest density observed in Ninghai (4 524.76/100 000 person-years), followed by Xiangshan (3 984.22/100 000 person-years). In 3 748 library-conformed cases, 2 834(75.61%) were detected positive, among which enterovirus-A71, Cox-A16 and other enteroviruses accounted for 9.03%, 31.55% and 59.42%, respectively. During the study period, the cumulative coverage of enterovirus-A71 vaccine increased year by year, with the proportion of enterovirus-A71 and severe cases both gradually decreasing.@*CONCLUSION@#The current status of hand, foot and mouth disease in Ningbo is still serious. Children under 3-year old (especially male children aged 1 year) were the key population for prevention and control. Vaccination might lead to changes in major pathogenic virus type, of which more attention should be paid to the potential impact on disease surveillance, prevention and control.

Epidemiological study of infantile epilepsy incidence density among infants under 36 months of age in Ningbo City from 2015 to 2019 / 北京大学学报(医学版)

OBJECTIVE@#To describe the distribution and trend of infantile epilepsy among infants under 36 months in Ningbo, Zhejiang Province.@*METHODS@#Using the birth cohort design, we retrospectively collected the local born infants in Ningbo national health information platform from 2015 to 2019, and took the first visit of epilepsy in the electronic medical record of the platform as the new case. The incidence density and 95% confidence interval (CI) of epilepsy were estimated by Poisson distribution.@*RESULTS@#From 2015 to 2019, a total of 294 900 children were born in Ningbo, with male accounting for 51.92%. The total person-years of observation were 595 300, while the median follow-up person-years was 2.31 [interquartile range (IQR): 1.90]. There were 575 new onset epilepsy patients during the whole observation period. The total number of visits was 2 599, with an average of 4.52. The total incidence density was 96.59/100 000 person-years (95%CI: 88.85-104.82). The median age of onset was 13 months (IQR: 15), 0-12 months old infants had the highest incidence density (102.18/100 000 person-years), 25-36 months old infants had the lowest incidence density (89.68/100 000 person-years), and the difference was not statistically significant (P>0.05). The incidence density of male was 97.58/100 000 person-years, female was 95.53/100 000 person-years, and the difference was not statistically significant (P>0.05). Fenghua was the highest (130.54/100 000 person-years, 95%CI: 94.47-175.83) and Ninghai was the lowest (66.44/100 000 person-years, 95%CI: 47.02-91. 19), with significant difference (P < 0.05). There was no significant difference in the incidence density in different birth years (P>0.05). There was significant difference in the incidence density between 0-12 months old infants in different calendar years (Ptrend < 0.05). In this age group, the incidence density was the lowest in 2015 (69.41/100 000 person-years, 95%CI: 41.79-108.39), and the highest in 2019 (225.61/100 000 person-years, 95%CI: 186.10-271.03). There was no significant difference in the incidence density between 13-24 and 25-36 months old infants in different calendar years (P>0.05).@*CONCLUSION@#The incidence density of epilepsy in 0-36 months old infants in Ningbo City from 2015 to 2019 was low as a whole, and there was no difference in age group, gender, and year of birth. The incidence density of 0-12 months old infants increased with the year.

Epidemiological study of bone and joint injury based on urban medical insurance database / 北京大学学报(医学版)

OBJECTIVE@#To estimate the prevalence rate of bone and joint injury in China and to describe the three-dimension distribution of the disease (area, time and people).@*METHODS@#Based on a cross-sectional design, a retrospective study was conducted by using Chinese basic medical insurance database from January 1, 2013 to December 31, 2017 to analyze the epidemiological characteristics of bone and joint injury. The prevalence rate of bone and joint injury in each city was calculated, and then using meta-analyses to estimate the pooled prevalence of each area and the whole country. The pooled prevalence rates were compared among the different groups of populations, in terms of geographical area, time and population characteristics (age and gender).@*RESULTS@#A total of 28 419 264 subjects were included in this study, including 705 793 patients with bone and joint injury. From 2013 to 2017, in Chinese basic medical insurance database, the overall prevalence rate of bone and joint injury was 141.5(95%CI: 90.4－203.7) per 10 000 population, and the prevalence rates of non-specific or polyarticular disease, knee disease, and shoulder disease were 101.6 (95%CI: 63.5－148.4)per 10 000 population, 22.5(95%CI:15.1－31.4)per 10 000 population and 10.9 (95%CI: 6.4－16.4)per 10 000 population. The prevalence rates varied across the areas, the highest rate was observed in North China, with the prevalence of 310.6 (95%CI: 12.6－989.7) per 10 000 population, and the lowest rate was observed in Southwest China, with the prevalence of 59.0 (95%CI: 37.5－85.2) per 10 000 population. The prevalence rate of bone and joint injury increased over the study period, from 111.1 (95%CI: 56.0－182.5)per 10 000 population in 2013 to 175.5 (95%CI: 116.8－245.5)per 10 000 population in 2017. The prevalence of bone and joint injury in the female population was 149.1 (95%CI: 94.2－215.9) per 10 000 population, which was higher than that of men [133.6(95%CI: 86.2－190.9) per 10 000 population]. The higher prevalence of knee disease, unspecified or polyarticular disease, and bone and joint injury were observed in people aged 60 years and older, while the prevalence of shoulder disease peaked in 40－59 years old people [20.6 (95%CI: 12.5－30.5) per 10 000 population].@*CONCLUSION@#This study reported a relative low prevalence of bone and joint injury in China from 2013 to 2017. The prevalence increased over the study period, and the highest prevalence rate was observed in North China. The prevalence rate showed differences among different groups of populations, and higher rates were observed in females and people aged 60 years and older.